Predicting relapse and overdose

Machine learning, wearables, and prescription-monitoring data.

1. Study

   An overdose risk score held up in a second state, but most people it flagged did not overdose

   Source date June 1, 2022 · Prediction model built and tested on past insurance claims (a prognostic modelling study). No one was treated differently because of the score. · Built on 639,693 Pennsylvania beneficiaries (2013-16). Tested on 318,585 Pennsylvania beneficiaries (2017-18) and 391,959 Arizona beneficiaries (2015-17).

   A Medicaid claims model ranked opioid overdose risk well in Pennsylvania and Arizona. In its top Pennsylvania risk group, about 4 in 100 had an overdose.